This year, for the first time, data on tobacco tax receipts and projections was missing from the budget papers, writes Simon Chapman. This data is absolutely critical to the evaluation of Australia’s plain packaging law.
Australia's revolutionary plain packaging laws have governments around the world watching and waiting.
The largest impact expected is that on future teenagers who will grow up having never seen a packet of 69 known carcinogens dressed up in beautiful, market-researched packs designed to maximize their appeal to the critically important market segment of young starting smokers.
Apart from the pack, Australia banned most of the last vestiges of tobacco advertising in 1992, so someone aged 21 today has never seen domestic tobacco advertising.
Not coincidentally, daily smoking prevalence among 15-17-year-olds in Australia is now at an all time low of 4.2 per cent, and plain packs are expected to knock that even lower over the next decades as those being born today grow into the smoking uptake years.
But there are likely to also be impacts on those who already smoke. A report just released found consistent differences between smokers using plain packs and those still smoking the former branded packs, during the crossover period in 2012.
Those smoking from plain packs thought they tasted worse, thought more about quitting, and more planned to quit in the next six months. With planning to quit being a good predictor of quitting, quitting effects seem likely.
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